Why has Russia suddenly become more active in putting forward its proposals for a negotiated settlement? Maria Kucherenko, a senior analyst at the CBA Initiatives Center, explained the issue for the Fakty program on ICTV.

According to her, Russia’s overtures are driven by a growing set of internal and external pressures:

• a deteriorating economy strained by sanctions and prolonged warfare, 
• growing logistical constraints that risk compounding these losses, 
• and political signals from both Beijing and Washington.
• increasing pressure from China, which is pushing for concessions and preferential terms;
• pressure from the United States, as Donald Trump seeks to present himself as a global “peacemaker.”

At the same time, she notes, American officials are skeptical of recent media reports suggesting that Russia’s FSB seeks to distance itself from Beijing.

“The Russian Federation and China have signed strategic agreements that provide for joint naval patrols in the Pacific from 2024 to 2026,” Kucherenko added.

In her opinion, caught between the two great powers - China and US - Russia is trying to simulate a negotiation process in the hope of winning sanctions relief - an approach that closely resembles its tactics during the Minsk process, when talks served primarily to buy time and avoid accountability.

“The only effective approach is to prioritise security,” Kucherenko added. “Any meetings or negotiations with Russia should focus first and foremost on security. Without real progress in this area, there can be no lifting of sanctions or serious dialogue. Ukraine continues to adhere firmly to this approach.”