Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation, 19 top managers of large Russian corporations have committed suicide. On July 4, the vice president of Transneft, Andrei Badalov, died after falling from the window of his apartment. On July 7, the recently dismissed Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation, Roman Starovoit, shot himself with his award-winning weapon.

Maria Kucherenko, a senior analyst at the CBA Initiatives Center, explained on the air of ICTV’s Fakty program how this is connected with the consequences of the war that Russia is waging against Ukraine and the global security order in general, and what is happening within the Russian elites in this regard.

As for Starovoit, he had purely logical reasons for such an act. By the time he became Minister of Transport in May 2024, he was the governor of the Kursk region. That is, there are many, many questions you could ask him about the fortifications.

A criminal case has already been opened against him for fraud related to the “Kursk Region Development Corporation.” This involves over 1 billion Russian rubles allocated for the construction of fortifications. So, when he was removed from his post as Minister of Transport, he already knew what was going on.

This is indeed connected with major processes in the Russian Federation. But here it is worth placing the accents correctly. It is not about the suicide of the vice president of Transneft as such. The fact is that defense spending is all undergoing a strict audit by the new Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov (appointed after Shoigu in May 2024). Shoigu's deputies have already been imprisoned for large-scale corruption, which all of Moscow knew about. So when it comes to embezzling money for fortifications in the Kursk Region, it was clear what it was all about.

This was the beginning of the tightening of the screws. The fact of death itself is not symptomatic, but the fact that these people understand that it is better to shoot themselves than go to prison. Starovoit shot himself with his own award-winning weapon. In the tradition of the system from which Putin emerged, an award-winning pistol is given for this very purpose.

But the fact that Putin says that it is not 1937 in Russia is indicative against the background of all these events and suicides. Apparently, among the elites there is a notion that it is better to stay safe than to hold high positions, remain in the cage, and then pay with your life. There is already an understanding that the advantages of the Putin system – wealth and superpowers – all this is not there now. Because the national currency is depreciating, the Russian economy and Russia in general are being preserved in itself.

The margin of safety is not that great, but it is still there. But a lot depends on the situation in the Middle East. If we look at the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, it gave Russia some support and gave its economists time to find solutions. On June 19, oil prices reached their peak – the Urals was trading for more than $70 per barrel, although before that prices were much lower. Russia took everything from this.

Of course, it is quite clear to Russia and its economists that the worse the situation in the Middle East, the more profitable it is for Russia in the short term. And Russia will continue to try by all means to destabilize the situation there.

For Iran, Russia has proven itself to be a bad ally. Russia wants not to spend, but only to have profits from oil prices. And I am more than convinced that Russia will not stop with its destructive influences on the Middle East, and we will see many more attempts by Russia to destabilize the security situation in the world as a whole.

And as long as Russia has enough money to motivate its citizens to go to war, it will continue its active destabilization activities.

The Russians and representatives of the Russian Federation's defense industry are kept on the front line by the opportunity to receive large payments. When systematic refusals of these payments begin, then questions may begin to arise. And there are already precedents regarding both regional and national payments. But all this is formalized as legal negligence on the part of those who mobilize or sign a contract. And the dissatisfaction of the population is channeled to the regional authorities, the state services cabinet, or is directed to the Investigative Committee. That is, it is purposefully done so that President Putin has no use for it.

A certain lack of those willing to mobilize is already felt in Russia and it will grow. But we should not be held captive by illusions. The defeat of Russia, which we strive for, is a matter of years.